The strategy of sensemaking - why clarity is the new leadership advantage

Few would probably contest that we’re living in a largely incomprehensible world right now where the role of leadership is no longer to simply provide the answer but to provide the framework for functional teams to find meaning.

In 2026 clarity is arguably a greater competitive advantage than certainty. For many years leaders have consciously or subconsciously hung on to the VUCA model which recognises a world which is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. A more recent alternative perspective proposed by futurist Jamais Casico suggests that the world is actually Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear and Incomprehensible – his BANI model.

Fresh research from the Hult International Business School (2026) draws a sharp line between these two modes of operating. The findings being that ‘complicated’ problems have solutions – a technical discipline – whilst ‘complex’ problems only have sensemaking – a leadership discipline.

The study warns of a ‘Premature Illusion of Certainty’ where leaders who rush to provide a technical solution to a complex systemic issue actually increase systemic fragility because they treat the symptom not the underlying ‘noise’.

What does this look like in reality?

It’s the difference between a leader who looks for the ubiquitous ‘10-point plan’ to fix an immediate issue to one more willing to explore why traditional metrics are giving conflicting signals.

In a BANI environment, the ‘Premature Illusion of Certainty’ usually manifests as ‘The Hero Complex’ where a leader feels the pressure of the anxious and incomprehensible world and reverts to what made them successful in the first place – technical expertise. They swoop in, issue a directive and feel a momentary sense of control.

But the cost is hidden and high.

Bottlenecks: Decisions stall because everyone is waiting for the ‘expert’ to contribute.

Fragility: The team stops thinking critically because they’ve been trained that the boss has the answer.

Burnout: The leader becomes the single point of failure, exhausted by trying to solve complex human systems with technical spreadsheets.

Where sensemaking comes in.

The leaders who move from ‘doing’ to ‘sensemaking’ do three simple things well.

1.   Label the Problem: Before diving into a solution they question whether they are dealing with a complicated problem with a known fix or a complex one where there’s a clear need to find a new pattern? Simply categorising what’s being dealt with lowers the collective anxiety.

2.   Trade certainty for clarity: Leaders don't need to know exactly how the next twelve months will play out (with certainty) they just need to be clear on core values, immediate next steps and what success looks like in the current context - clarity.

3.   The 80/20 Question Shift: If you are a senior leader, 80% of your value should come from the questions you ask, not the answers you provide. Instead of telling a team how to fix a delay, try asking "what are we seeing in the data that doesn't make sense yet?"

In 2026, the most effective leaders aren't the ones with the loudest voices or the most answers. They are the ones who can stand in the middle of the ‘incomprehensible’ and help their teams find a common thread to pull on.